Xam’s Daily Gems:
Cubs Money Line -126 FanDuel
Joe Ross has given up 6 earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts and now faces a Cubs team that’s scoring just under 6 runs per game at Wrigley Field. Hayden Wesneski hasn’t pitched particularly deep in games this year, going just 10.1 innings in 3 starts. He has been effective, however, pitching to a sterling 0.87 ERA. The Brewers have played well on the road this year, while the Cubs have been great in front of the Cubs faithful at home, so something has to give in this matchup. The Cubs needed a lot of bullpen work yesterday as the game went 11 innings and they couldn’t get 5 innings from their starter, Ben Brown. The Brewers had the day off.
The key to this game will be what the Cubs can do offensively. The Brewers have scored runs for most of the year, and the Cubs will likely need to score quite a bit to win this game. Fortunately, Joe Ross has been very hittable recently. Both bullpens have performed identically this year, but the Cubs may need other relievers to step up given the long game yesterday. If Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Pete Crow-Armstrong can get the bats going early, the Cubs SHOULD be able to snag the first game of this series and get themselves a tie atop the NL Central!
Pirates Money Line -180 FanDuel
Southpaw Martin Perez goes for the Pirates today. He’s been very effective this year, coming into this start with a 2.86 ERA. He’s also coming off a 6-inning scoreless effort on the road against the Giants his last time out. Now, he faces one of the worst lineups in the National League. The Rockies are 2-8 in their last 10 games, have lost 5 straight games, have scored the 2nd fewest runs in the National League, AND are a woeful 2-14 away from Coors Field. They’ve actually trailed at some point in every single game they’ve played this year, which is a modern-era major league record. There’s just not much to like about them right now. Cal Quantrill goes for the Rockies tonight. He comes into tonight with a 5.34 ERA which ticks up to 6.00 on the road. The Pirates had the day off yesterday while the Rockies lost in extra innings to the Marlins, so the Pirates have a rest advantage in this game as well. All of Pittsburgh’s premium relievers SHOULD be available, with Aroldis Chapman and Brock Bednar forming a formidable back of the bullpen punch. The Pirates SHOULD be able to score runs against what’s been an ineffective pitcher this year, and the season of futility for the Rockies should continue.
Phillies Money Line -142 FanDuel
The Phillies have gotten off to a solid start this year as expected, coming into tonight’s game at 21-11 and winners of 7 of their last 10 games. Now, they send Aaron Nola to the mound. Nola has rounded into form and comes into tonight with a 3.20 ERA. Aaron Nola has thrown 4 straight quality starts, the start before that he went 5.2 innings scoreless, and he’s gone 7.1 innings or longer in each of his last 3 starts. He’s given up 8 earned runs in his last 5 starts COMBINED! That’s rough news for the Giants, who have scored just 29 runs in their last 10 games and are 6-10 on the road coming into tonight. The Giants counter with Jordan Hicks, who has gotten off to a great start with the Giants. He has a sterling ERA of 1.59 coming into tonight. The Phillies do have a rest advantage coming into tonight, however, as they were off yesterday while the Giants wrapped up their series with the Red Sox. The Phillies have the rest and bullpen advantage coming into this game, which can’t be overstated. The Phillies bullpen has been pretty good so far this year. However, based on how Nola has pitched recently, they may not need too many bullpen innings tonight. The Phillies are averaging just under 5 runs per game at home this year, and if they can get to that average tonight, Nola and the bullpen SHOULD be able to shutdown what’s been a weak Giants offense recently.
Rays Money Line -135 DraftKings
The Rays have been really struggling lately, dropping to 14-18 and last place in the AL East thanks to a 2-8 stretch and a lineup that’s producing just 3.75 runs per game this season. They turn to Aaron Civale tonight, who has struggled overall this year to the tune of a 5.06 ERA. However, he’s been quite effective at home this year. At Tropicana Field this year, he has a 2.50 ERA. He’s thrown a quality start in all 3 of his home starts and he’s given up just 1 run in 2 of those starts. He faces a Mets lineup that’s been as up and down as any so far this year. The Mets counter with southpaw Jose Quintana, who’s had the same issues as Civale this year. He’s pitched well at home, but he has a 5.06 road ERA this year. The Rays have to manufacture some runs tonight against a pitcher who’s struggled on the road and against what could be a tired bullpen. The Mets played 11 innings yesterday and used their best reliever, Edwin Diaz, for 2 of those innings, which means he probably won’t be available tonight. The Rays had the day off yesterday, so this rest advantage should enable the Rays to have all of their bullpen guys available. If Civale can return to form and do what he does at home, the Rays SHOULD be able to put their recent losing stretch behind them.
Yankees Money Line -162 DraftKings
The Yankees are coming off a disappointing series against the Orioles which saw them lose 3 out of the 4 games. Their powerful lineup looked out of sync all series as Baltimore’s elite pitching shut them down. Now, they come back home to face a surging Tigers team that has won 7 of their last 10 games and is 10-4 on the road so far this year. Marcus Stroman goes for the Yankees, and he’s gotten off to a solid start this year. He has a 3.69 ERA on the year, but he has given up 7 runs in his last 2 starts, going just 9.1 innings over that stretch. The Tigers were off yesterday. They turn to Reese Olson for the first game of this series. He has gotten off to a solid start this year with a 3.18 ERA, but that ERA jumps to 4.80 on the road. Despite playing yesterday, the Yankees SHOULD have their premium bullpen arms available as needed. They should be able to hit a young pitcher in their own building. As the series in Milwaukee showed, they can hit when they’re right, and they’re usually right at Yankee Stadium. If the Yankees can get their bats back on track, they SHOULD be able to snag the first game of this series. They have the better pitcher on the mound and the better lineup.
Magic Money Line -170 DraftKings
The Magic are back home where they dominated the Cavaliers in Games 3 and 4. They played well in Game 5 as well, losing by just a single point. Jarrett Allen is dealing with a rib injury that cuased him to miss Game 5, and he is highly questionable for Game 6 as well. The Magic won Games 3 and 4 by a combined 61 points! The offense looked disheveled, and Orlando, led by Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, did whatever they wanted offensively. Of course, all of Orlando’s starters will see increased minutes in this elimination game. The key will be slowing down superstar Donovan Mitchell and forcing anyone else to beat them. Mitchell had a combined 31 points in the two road games while Darius Garland had just 19 total points. The fans will bring the ENERGY tonight, and it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff pull some guys a little early if this game gets out of hand again. If the Magic play their trademark defense like they did in Games 3 and 4, we should be set for a Game 7 showdown on Sunday!
Guardians Money Line -172 FanDuel
The Guardians turn to Tanner Bibee in the first game of their series against the Angels. To the surprise of no one, the Angels are struggling and Mike Trout just got hurt again. The Angels are 11-20 and just 2-8 in their last 10 games. Jose Soriano goes for the Angels. He struggled mightily in his last start, failing to make it out of the 2nd inning! That’s bad news when you then have to face the Guardians, who have scored the 2nd most runs in the American League. The Angels were off yesterday, but the Guardians SHOULD have all of their elite bullpen arms available as needed tonight. Tanner Bibee has gotten off to a solid start this year, coming into tonight with a 3.45 ERA. He’s also coming off his best start of the season, throwing 7 scoreless innings in Atlanta his last time out. He’s been solid in his last 3 starts, giving up 3 runs total over that stretch. In 4 of his last 5 starts, he’s given up 2 runs or less! If he can continue this successful stretch tonight, the Guardians shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES scoring tonight and securing the first game of this series!
Cardinals -1 -207 DraftKings
The Cardinals turn to Sonny Gray in the first game of their series against the White Sox. Gray has been superb in 4 starts this year, coming into tonight with a 1.16 ERA. Now, he gets to face the worst lineup in baseball. The White Sox have scored a paltry 89 runs this year, by far the fewest in the league. At 6-25, they’re well on their way to a lost season. The White Sox turn to Brad Keller tonight, who threw 1.2 innings for the team in relief on the 29th. He probably won’t last too long in this game, which means there will be plenty of bullpen arms being used by the White Sox. That’s bad news for the White Sox, as their bullpen ERA is among the worst in baseball so far this year. The Cardinals haven’t scored as much as they should have so far this year, but they’re in PRIME POSITION to score runs tonight. Also, with their off day yesterday, their bullpen SHOULD be fully rested and ready to go! As long as Sonny Gray keeps up his strong start to the year, the Cardinals should get this series off on the right foot!
Athletics Money Line -130 FanDuel
The Athletics were expected to be one of the worst teams in baseball this year, but they have pleasantly surprised a lot of people by hovering around .500 for most of the year. The Marlins, meanwhile, have taken a gigantic step backwards from their playoff appearance last year and are a dreadful 9-24 to start the season. Believe it or not that’s an improvement for them as they’re coming off a sweep of the Rockies. It’s a duel between two southpaws tonight, as Ryan Weathers and JP Sears get the start for their respective teams. Ryan Weathers has a 4.55 ERA for the Marlins this year and has gotten hit hard in his last 2 starts, giving up 9 runs in just 9.2 innings of work. JP Sears has a 4.64 ERA, but that is a little inflated based on his last start where he gave up 7 runs to the Orioles. Before that start, he went his last 3 starts giving up a total of 1 earned run! The Marlins don’t score a lot of runs, as they’re averaging just 3.63 runs per game this year. That ticks down to 3.15 on the road this year. The Athletics also have a rest advantage in this game, as the Marlins finished off their series with the Rockies and played 10 innings yesterday before getting ready to travel across the country. If Sears can get back to form, the A’s SHOULD be able to scratch out some runs and get closer to .500!
Patrick Corbin Over 15.5 Outs Recorded -125 DraftKings
The Nationals could use length from starter Patrick Corbin tonight. The Nationals haven’t been getting much length from their rotation recently. The Nationals have had 1 starter go more than 5.1 innings pitched since April 25th! Corbin himself went just 4 innings in his last start which came against the Marlins. On the season, he’s averaging exactly 5.2 innings per start. Before his last start, he cleared this number of outs recorded in 4 straight games, and went 6 innings or longer in 2 of them. These included 3 tough starts against the Dodgers and Phillies. Corbin hit this number in 10 of his 15 home starts last year. He hasn’t always been effective but he has shown an ability to get outs! The Blue Jays have really struggled at the plate this year and if Corbin can keep his pitch count down tonight, he SHOULD be able to clear this number yet again!
Jalen Suggs Over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists -138 FanDuel
Suggs is averaging 7.2 rebounds + assists in this series, and is averaging over 4 more minutes of playing time per game. In this elimination game at home, he SHOULD see as many minutes as he can possibly handle! He cleared this number easily in each of the first 3 games of this series, and he played 39 minutes in Game 5! If he gets ANYWHERE near those minutes tonight, he SHOULD clear this number yet again as his team looks to force a decisive Game 7. Suggs LOVES to be involved on the boards and he’s a good passer. His rebound numbers are up in the playoffs, and the assists should come a little more easily at home.
Kyrie Irving Over 4.5 Assists -135 DraftKings
Irving has cleared this number in 3 straight games against the Clippers and he’s averaging over 39 minutes per game in this series, which is a BIG jump from his regular season minutes. He should get a similar workload tonight as the Mavericks are sizable favorites tonight but will want to leave nothing to chance as they look to end this series and avoid a decisive Game 7 on the road. Irving cleared this number in 17/29 home games this year (58.6%) and with his passing ability and extra minutes, he shouldn’t have ANY ISSUES clearing this number yet again!
JP Sears Over 4.5 Ks -140 DraftKings
Sears has racked up the strikeouts recently, recording 15 strikeouts in his last 2 games! He’s cleared this number in of his last 5 starts, but more importantly, he’s going deeper into games. He’s gone 6 innings or longer in 3 of his last 4 starts! The Marlins will be tired after flying across the country and Sears SHOULD be able to provide similar length in this game as he has in recent starts. If he can keep his pitch count down against a bad lineup, he should stick around long enough in this game to clear this strikeout number for the 4th time in his last 6 starts!