Xam’s Daily Gems:
Guardians +1.5 -185 DraftKings 1 Unit
The Guardians come into Game 3 tonight facing what essentially amounts to a MUST WIN against the Yankees. Down 2-0 in this series, manager Stephen Vogt knows his team needs a win in the worst possible way. Though it obviously happened to the Yankees before, coming back from a 3-0 deficit would be a next to IMPOSSIBLE task. Southpaw Matthew Boyd makes the start for the Guardians today. While he hasn’t pitched many innings this postseason, he did pitch 2 scoreless innings at home in the decisive Game 5 against the Tigers in the ALDS. Boyd has solid stats dating back to the regular season, but frankly, those can be thrown out the window. The Guardians will likely turn to their ELITE bullpen early and often in this game. During the regular season, no team in the ENTIRE SPORT had a lower bullpen ERA or WHIP than the Guardians. Between Hunter Gaddis, Eli Morgan, Tim Herrin, Cade Smith, and the best closer in the sport, Emmanuel Clase, the Guardians have multiple elite relief pitchers they can deploy tonight. The Yankees are going with Clarke Schmidt tonight. He’s pitched well for the Yankees this season, but this is just a different kind of game and atmosphere that he isn’t used to. The Yankees also don’t NEED this game. The Guardians are the home team and the far more desperate team. Expect the Guardians to come out with a sense of urgency and keep this game close!
Broncos/Saints Over 37 Points -110 BetMGM 1 Unit
On paper, this may not be a game to expect a lot of points. Two rookies quarterbacks and the Saints missing key offensive weapons may be a sign for concern. The Saints are missing wide receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed in this game. However, it’s important to note quarterback Spencer Rattler played essentially all of last week’s game without Olave, who suffered a concussion in the first quarter, and STILL led the Saints to 27 points. Importantly, the Broncos are missing their top cornerback in this game, Pat Surtain. Rattler SHOULD have some room to operate. For the Broncos, quarterback Bo Nix is getting more comfortable in Sean Payton’s offense. He’s thrown 4 touchdown passes to just 1 interception over his last 2 games. On a short week, don’t be surprised to see Payton get creative and get his playmakers room to operate. If they can get the running game going early, look for Nix and the Broncos to try and open up with play-action passes down the field. If the Saints can produce ANYTHING offensively, (they were shutout in the 2nd half last week) we just may be in store for a SHOOTOUT in the Superdome!
Spencer Rattler Over 183.5 Passing Yards -+100 DraftKings 1 Unit
Rattler showed CONFIDENCE AND POISE in his 1st career start last week. Facing a defensive minded head coach in Todd Bowles, Rattler threw for an impressive 243 yards in the loss. Of course, overall game script in the 2nd half forced him to throw the ball a lot, but he made TONS of plays when the game was still in doubt. While he’s missing his top two wide receivers in this game, he does have superstar running back Alvin Kamara, who will SURELY be involved early and often in the passing game. At this low of a total, all Rattler needs is a couple of runs after the catch from his wide receivers to hit this. The Broncos are undoubtedly going to be playing to stop the run and forcing Rattler to throw the ball. He’s going to have his chances against a secondary missing their top cornerback. If Rattler can get a couple short passes completed early and build that confidence, don’t be surprised to see him go Over this Total!