Xam’s Daily Gems:
Saints Money Line -164
The Saints are 4-3 at home this year and have held their last two opponents to 12 total points in those games. They always seem to play tougher when they have the backing of their fans at the Superdome. The winner of this game will win the NFC South if the Buccaneers lose today, so there’s plenty of motivation for the Saints to go out and win. They have more talent on both sides of the ball and seem to be playing their best ball when it matters most. They effectively extended their season with a dominant win in Tampa Bay last week. The Falcons may be looking to fire head coach Arthur Smith and QB play has been an issue all year for them. In this type of game, that’s not going to work. Saints QB Derek Carr has only 1 interception in his last 3 games. If he can avoid the big mistakes, the Saints should do enough offensively to get it done today.
Bears/Packers Over 45.5 Points -115
The Bears have been playing great football recently, and Justin Fields has been playing the best QB of his career over his last few games. The Packers have one of the worst defenses in the league. The Bears should continue their run of offensive success. Jordan Love, meanwhile, has really stepped up his game in recent weeks. In his last 7 games, Love has 14 TD passes and just 1 interception. Love has been playing with a ton of confidence. The Bears have improved defensively since they acquired Montez Sweat, but the Packers should still be able to get things done offensively. They are in the playoffs with a win, so they’ll be ready to go. The Bears would love nothing more than to end a successful 2nd half of the year by sending their division rivals home instead of to the playoffs.
Eagles/Giants Over 42.5 Points -115
The Eagles can still win the division and the #2 seed with a win and Cowboys loss. They also want to develop some chemistry and build some momentum as they head into the playoffs. The Giants have looked better offensively since Tyrod Taylor re-entered the starting lineup. They have scored 25 points in each of the last 2 games, which includes their first game against the Eagles. The Eagles simply do not have a good defense. At home, the Giants should be able to make things happen. The Eagles still have a dynamic offense, even without DeVonta Smith playing in this game.
Raiders Money Line -164
The Raiders have played some inspiring football since Antonio Pierce took over as the head coach. The defense has been flying around and the offense has been efficient at times. They’d love nothing more than to end their season with a win at home over a division rival. Jarrett Stidham will make his first career start on the road. He won his first game ever as a starter last week, but hardly looked impressive against a bad Chargers defense. If the Raiders can avoid making mistakes and turning the ball over, they should be able to do enough offensively to get it done today. The Broncos don’t have an elite offense. Expect a lot of running in this game from both teams. Zamir White and Devante Adams will likely be the stars for the Raiders in their final game of the year.
Bills Money Line -158
The Bills will clinch the AFC East and #2 seed in the AFC with a win tonight. They have been playing much better of late and playing with a ton of confidence. Josh Allen has this offense humming. James Cook has been a revelation and really made their offense more diverse. They’re also pretty healthy, which is rare for Week 18. The same can’t be said for the Miami Dolphins. Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are both expected to miss the game tonight, and their defense has been ravaged by injuries. They just lost star linebacker to a torn ACL last week and were already without linebacker Jaelen Phillips. This is a bad game to be missing key offensive and defensive pieces for. The Bills have the momentum, the healthier team, and the better QB. Expect the Bills to get it done tonight.
Derrick Henry Over 51.5 Rushing Yards -110
This can be considered a legacy game and narrative driven pick today. This may be Henry’s last game as a Titan, and he’d surely love nothing more than to go out with a bang against a divisional opponent in his own building. The Titans haven’t given up this year despite their poor record. The volume has been there for him all year but has increased of late. He has 16 or more carries in 5 of his last 6 games. Before last week’s blowout, the Titans have been playing teams tough and playing hard. Expect it to continue today. Head coach Mike Vrabel has the team playing hard, and ending their division rival’s season would be a nice way for them to end their season.
Jordan Love Over 246.5 Passing Yards -110
Jordan Love has been getting better and better as the year has gone on. He averages over 262 passing yards per game at home this year and has gone over this number in 6 of his last 8 games. This run has directly coincided with him turning the ball over less. There’s a good chance this game turns into a high scoring affair and the Packers will need their QB to step up with the playoffs on the line. The Packers haven’t ran the ball effectively for much of the year. Expect them to lean on their hot young QB with everything on the line.
Josh Allen Over 243.5 Passing Yards -110
This is a bit of a buy low spot on Allen who hasn’t gone over this number in 4 straight games. The Bills have been running the ball more and doing it well recently, but this is the perfect game for Allen to explode. The Dolphins are missing key pass rushers and star cornerback Xavien Howard will be out as well. However, the Dolphins still have enough firepower to keep the game close and turn it into a high scoring affair. Allen destroyed the Dolphins earlier this year, throwing for 320 passing yards in a dominant win. Allen has actually dominated the Bills for much of his career, throwing for an average of 273 yards per game in 11 career games against them. Allen has played like the MVP of the league for times this season. With the division and potentially their season on the line tonight on the road, expect the Bills to ride their best offensive player.