Xam’s Daily Gems:
Bills Money Line -154
The Bills have a decisive homefield advantage and it’s shown this year. They have dominated teams at home this year, and good teams at that. The Bills beat multiple playoff teams at home this year, and including the playoffs, have 4 wins of 14 or more points in their own building this year. The Bills overall went 7-2 at home this year and their average margin of victory was over 12 points per game. They also beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead earlier this year. Simply put, this is Buffalo’s best chance to get past a team they have lost to twice in the playoffs recently. The Chiefs haven’t been the same on the road this year. Excluding the game they rested their starters in the last week of the year, the Chiefs averaged less than 22 points per game on the road this year. They scored 19 or less points in 3 of those games. The Bills should be able to move the ball today, as they did all year at home. The Chiefs will need to score to keep up, and it’s unclear that they will be able to today.
Mike Evans Over 4.5 Receptions -138
Evans averaged 8 targets a game during the regular season. Last week, despite it being a positive game script against the Eagles, QB Baker Mayfield kept throwing to Evans. He had 7 targets on the day. Today, the Buccaneers are about a touchdown underdog in a game that is projected to have a lot of scoring. The Lions should be able to move the ball and put up points, which means the Bucs will need to match scores. This likely means they’ll take to the air. Evans had 9 games with 5 or more catches, and 6 games with double digit targets. One of those games came in Week 6 against the Lions. Expect Evans to be involved early and often in a game that can feature a lot of scoring and a lot of passing.
James Cook Over 61.5 Rushing Yards -110
As the Bills started winning, they’ve been leaning more and more on the running game. James Cook has been a revelation in the 2nd half of the season. He was dominant running the ball at home this year, going for over 5 yards a carry at Highmark Stadium. He dominated against the Steelers last week, going for 79 yards on 18 carries. The Chiefs will be doing everything they can to slow down Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the dynamic passing game the Bills have. This should open up running lanes for Cook throughout the day. As they showed last week, the Chiefs can get after the quarterback. However, the Dolphins managed to run for over 4 yards a carry last week. James Cook should have similar success today.