Xam’s Gem(s):
Penn State/Ohio State Over 46.5 Points -110
Penn State has been great defensively this year, but they have yet to play a team with the offensive capabilities of Ohio State. Penn State will be able to generate pressure with their defensive line, but if QB Kyle McCord gets time, he should be able to find Marvin Harrison Jr. and his other weapons down the field. PSU also has been good offensively this year. QB Drew Allar is a legitimate dual threat that can give Ohio State’s defense fits. It goes without saying that Ohio State is the best defense Penn State has faced so far this year, but Penn State has dropped over 100 points in the last 2 weeks and hasn’t been held to under 30 points all year! PSU will do what they can to pound the rock, but Allar will have to make plays in the passing game to keep up with OSU.
Tennessee +9.5 -110
Simply put, this game likely comes down to whether or not Tennessee QB Joe Milton can keep himself composed and keep Tennessee’s offense in favorable down and distance situations. Tennessee’s defense is more than capable of slowing down an Alabama offense that has been up and down this year. Tennessee is barely giving up 300 yards of offense and only 17 points per game on defense. Alabama has also scored 26 points or less in 5 of their lasy 6 games. Nick Saban will likely want to lean on his running game and not make QB Jalen Milroe drop back too often. Milton already has 4 interceptions on the year and he will need to limit the mistakes in a hostile environment. Tennessee has been elite running the ball this year and Milton has been part of that success. With all the running in this game, the clock should be constantly moving. If Tennessee can do just a little bit offensively, the defense should be able to keep them in this game.
Michigan/Michigan State Over 45.5 Points -115
Michigan has one of the best offenses in college football, led by Blake Corum and J.J. McCarthy. Michigan is averaging just under 40 points per game this year, and Michigan State is giving up over 24 per game on defense. They just gave up 27 points last week to Rutgers. MSU QB Katin Houser played admirably last week on the road, but he’s going to have to do more for Michigan State to have a chance. Michigan’s offense is flying on all cylinders, scoring 45 or more points in each of their last 3 games. There’s little reason to suspect Michigan State’s defense can buck that trend tonight.
Clemson Money Line -156
Clemson has been playing good football since their Week 1 drubbing against Duke. They are 4-1 since then with their only loss coming in OT to Florida State. The offense has been a bit up and down with Cade Klubnik, but he’s been showing he can lead the offense and get points on the board. Miami Florida is still reeling from their disastrous loss to Georgia Tech. They gave up 41 points last week. Miami Florida doesn’t seem to be the same since head coach Mario Cristobal inexplicably didn’t take a knee to end the game against Georgia Tech. Their offense is humming, but Clemson’s defense has shown to be formidable this year. Dabo Swinney has been in these types of games before. The offense will run through Will Shipley, as it will behoove Clemson to keep Cade Klubnik in favorable down and distances and keep the explosive offense of Miami Florida on the sidelines.
Utah/USC Over 51.5 Points -110
USC is not only coming off their 1st loss of the year last week, and will surely be buttoned up coming into this game. Caleb Williams had arguably the worst game of his collegiate career, throwing 3 interceptions and finishing with less than 200 yards passing. Both him and head coach Lincoln Riley know they have to be better offensively, and sometimes it takes a bad loss to regain focus. As if anyone didn’t know, USC’s defense needs a ton of work. They have given up chunk plays all year. That is the real question in this game. USC at home is a juggernaut offensively. USC is giving up on average 27 points per game and over 420 yards per game. If Ja’Quinden Jackson and Utah can get anything going offensively, USC should be able to handle the rest.
Phillies First 5 Innings Money Line -126
The Phillies flew out to Arizona with a 2-0 lead in the NLCS, but bullpen meltdowns in back-to-back games have this series tied at 2-2 and now effectively a best-of-3 series. Zack Wheeler has pitched like the ace of this staff and they need him badly tonight. Arizona has all the momentum and the Philly bullpen is exhausted. Wheeler has the stuff and pedigree to pitch effectively in these big games, and Arizona hasn’t shown much of an ability to hit the starters for Philadelphia. The Phillies hit Zac Gallen in Game 1 of this series, and they have proven that their lineup is one of the best in entire league. Zac Gallen is a good pitcher in his own right, but he hasn’t pitched in a game like this before. Even with back-to-back wins, the pressure is still on Arizona. The last thing they want is to have to win twice in Philadelphia to advance to the World Series.
Xam’s Prop(s):
Zack Wheeler Over 16.5 Outs Recorded -148
The very last thing Phillies manager Rob Thomson wants to do in this game is go to his bullpen. After seeing his bullpen fall apart in 2 straight games, he’d love for Wheeler to go as deep as he can and avoid a repeat of the last 2 games. Wheeler has shown he has the mentality needed for a game like this. Wheeler has pitched 19 innings in 3 starts this postseason, which averages out to over 6 innings per start. For his entire career in the postseason, he’s averaging just over 6 innings per start as well. A starter with plenty of experience in big games and a tired bullpen will give Wheeler plenty of chances to go deep in this game.