Xam’s Gem(s):
Georgia Southern Money Line -128
Both Georgia State and Georgia Southern have been productive on offense and largely ineffective on defense this year. However, Georgia State has been worse defensively, giving up over 410 yards per game. Georgia State QB Darren Grainger has proven to be an effective game manager, but he only has 4 touchdown passes in his last 4 games. He does have 4 rushing touchdowns in his last 5 games, so Georgia Southern will need to be mindful of that. The key tonight likely comes down to Georgia Southern QB Davis Brin, however. He has 9 passing touchdowns in his last 4 games, but he’s thrown 2 interceptions in back-to-back games. Georgia State’s defense hasn’t shown an ability to get stops this year, however. If Brin can limit the mistakes, Georgia Southern should be able to do enough to come away with the win.
Virginia Tech -2.5 -120
Syracuse has gotten whacked in 3 straight games, and the offense has struggled mightily. They have scored just 10 points in their last 2 games. Virginia Tech has shown to be efficient on offense and limiting mistakes, as they have just 8 turnovers on the year. QB Kyron Drones is coming off an impressive performance against Wake Forest, completing almost 70% of his passes for over 300 yards with 2 passing TDs and no interceptions. Drones also likes to run the ball and does so well. He has no less than 14 carries in each of his last 5 games and 4 rushing touchdowns to go with that. Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader, meanwhile, has struggled recently. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in 3 of his last 5 games. Going on the road he will need to put some points on the board, and it’s not clear that Syracuse has fixed their offensive woes of the last few weeks.
Buccaneers/Bills Over 42.5 Points -118
The Bills have been sputtering defensively since the losses of Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano. The Patriots, not exactly known for their offensive efficiency this year, did whatever they wanted to Buffalo last week. Baker Mayfield should be able to find holes in the secondary to exploit. The Bills are also downright dominant offensively at home. The Bills have scored 38 points or more twice at home, and they added another 37 point performance on the road, so we know they can light it up when they’re in the mood. Look for the Bills to get their offense back on track against an exploitable secondary.
Flames Money Line -192
The Flames have gotten off to a slow start this year, but they are simply too talented to keep struggling. Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm, and Nazem Kadri all have track records and the Blues are 0-2 on the road so far this year. This should be the game where Calgary gets their offense on track in front of the home crowd. Calgary outshot the Rangers and won more faceoffs than the Rangers. If Calgary can limit their mistakes, they should be able to do enough offensively to secure the win.
Xam’s Prop(s):
Josh Allen Over 259.5 Passing Yards -110
Alen has gone over this number in 4 of his last 6 games, and 3 out of 4 times at home. His two biggest yardage totals have also come at home, which means he’s comfortable at home. Desmond Ridder went on the road in Tampa last week and threw for 250 yards, so there’s room to exploit this Tampa secondary. Allen knows the Bills will go as far as he takes them. It’s a tough ask for Tampa to go on the road on a short week and shut Allen down.
Stefon Diggs Over 6.5 Receptions -146
Diggs has an incredible 39 targets in his last 3 games. He has 11 targets or more in 5 of his 7 games this year. Allen just loves throwing him the ball. The only games he doesn’t have double digit targets are the games Miami won in blowout fashion. When Allen needs a conversion or a big play, he’s looking for his number 1 target. Don’t expect any change in gameplan tonight.
Mike Evans Over 4.5 Receptions -120
Evans has 18 targets in the last 2 weeks, and there’s a chance Tampa is throwing for large portions of this game in an attempt to mount a comeback as big underdogs. He has 8 targets or more in 5 of his 6 games this year. Baker Mayfield has attempted 79 passes in the last 2 games, which helps explain the increased attempts to his top target. There can be more of the same if Tampa finds themselves down in this game.
Josh Allen Over 22.5 Rushing Yards -110
Allen ran the most he has all year last week, with 7 rushing attempts. He does have 4 rushing touchdowns on the year, which makes him a weapon when the Bills are in scoring position. The Bills have given up the 2nd most sacks on the year, which may mean Allen is on the run more than expected this game. He’s rushed for as many as 46 yards in a game this year, which shows he knows what he’s doing when he tucks it and runs.
Rachaad White Over 69.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards -114
The Bills are giving up almost 130 rushing yards per game this year, and White is primed for another game of double digit carries. He’s also coming off the best receiving game of the season, catching all 6 of his targets for 65 yards. The Bills have a strong pass rush which will force Baker Mayfield to go with quick passes and likely some screen passes to fend off the pressure. The Bills have struggled against running backs for much of the year, and that continued last week against Patriots starter Rhamondre Stevenson. Look for White to continue that trend tonight.