Xam’s Daily Gems:
Diamondbacks Money Line -136 FanDuel 5 Units
The Diamondbacks are riding high after sweeping the Nationals and after a day off are set to take on the Pirates. Brandon Pfaadt makes his 2nd consecutive start against the Pirates and is looking for better results this time after giving up 5 earned runs against them at Chase Field. However, despite that poor outing Pfaadt has been pitching well recently. Before his last start, he went 4 straight starts giving up 1 earned run or less! The Pirates counter with Luis Ortiz tonight. He started as a relief pitcher this year but has since been moved to the starting rotation. The Diamondbacks scored 3 runs in 5 innings off him when he faced them in Arizona, so they know what to expect from him. Both teams are rested coming into this game as they were both off yesterday, but the Diamondbacks have the better lineup AND better bullpen. Arizona has scored a WHOPPING 123 runs in their last 20 games! Combine that with a rested bullpen, and the Diamondbacks have EVERYTHING THEY NEED to start their series off right with a win.
Yankees Money Line -162 FanDuel 5 Units
The Yankees are SUDDENLY one of the best teams in baseball, having won 5 straight games and SWEEPING the Phillies on the road. Now, they come home to face a division rival that traded away players at the Trade Deadline. At 50-59, the Blue Jays have been awfully disappointing this season. Kevin Gausman has been one of the biggest reasons for that disappointment. As the ace of the staff, he’s underwhelmed to say the least. He has a 4.44 ERA on the year and a 5.04 ERA in his last 7 starts. Marcus Stroman goes for the Yankees tonight at The Stadium, and he’s looking for a bounce back start after getting roughed up in Boston his last time out and coming into tonight with a 5.56 ERA in his last 7 starts. He’s actually been better on the road this season than at home, but facing the Blue Jays gives Stroman a nice chance to get back his normal ways of pitching. He will be fired up to face his former team and the Blue Jays have struggled to score on the road ALL YEAR, averaging JUST over 4 runs per game away from the Rogers Centre. The Yankees have the MOST runs scored in the American League AND have a FULLY RESTED bullpen that’s ready to go. Look for the Yankees to keep the good times rolling with a win over their division rivals.
Reds Money Line -120 FanDuel 5 Units
At 52-56, the Reds have A LOT of work to do to get back into the National League Wild Card race. The first task up is having to catch the team they’re playing tonight, the Giants. Southpaw Andrew Abbott goes for the Reds tonight, and he’s been a model of consistency ALL SEASON LONG! The Giants haven’t been a great offensive team for much of the year and they traded one of their best bats, Jorge Soler, at the Trade Deadline. The Giants have ALSO been a TERRIBLE road team this year, coming into play with a 21-33 record away from Oracle Park. The Reds have given up the 4th FEWEST runs in the National League and a big reason for that is their excellent bullpen. They just DON’T give up runs! If Abbott can contain a relatively weak Giants lineup, the Reds SHOULD be able to provide enough offense to get the job done tonight in front of the home fans!
Orioles/Guardians Over 9 Runs -114 FanDuel 5 Units
Two pitchers with a propensity to give up runs are facing two of the best lineups in the American League tonight. The Orioles have scored the 2nd MOST runs in all of baseball this season, while the Guardians are AVERAGING almost 5 runs per game at home! Dean Kremer goes for the Orioles tonight. His 4.20 ERA this season is okay but that has gone up to a 4.93 ERA in his last 7 starts. He’s ALSO been TERRIBLE at night, pitching to an ugly 5.23 nighttime ERA. He’s been better on the road than at home, but to the point where they should be some negative regression coming in road starts. Kremer is NOT to be outdone by Carlos Carrasco, however. The 37-year-old has been ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE this season! His 5.68 ERA leaves A LOT to be desired and that goes UP to 6.22 over his last 15 starts! The Guardians have the best bullpen in baseball, so the Orioles BETTER be ready to score off Carrasco. The Orioles also have one of the BEST lineups in baseball, proving they can score off anyone and everyone. Both teams have offensive superstars that are capable of doing damage, and neither starter tonight warrants having confidence in. Two of the PREMIERE teams in the American League SHOULD light up the scoreboard tonight!
Braves Money Line -238 DraftKings 5 Units
The Braves are going for their 4th straight win as they look to stay atop the National League Wild Card race. Spencer Schwellenbach had the best start of his CAREER last time out, pitching 7 scoreless innings with 0 walks and 11 strikeouts against a red-hot Mets lineup on the road! Now, he faces BY FAR the worst lineup in the National League. The Marlins have struggled to score all year and are the only team in the NL that has yet to cross 400 runs scored. They also traded away several top pieces at the Trade Deadline, fully intent on rebuilding their team from scratch and going all in on the future. The Braves are a different story. Despite suffering several key injuries, they are in position to not only make the playoffs but prove to be a tough out. They’re a very good home team, coming into tonight with a 31-21 record at Truist Park. The Marlins, meanwhile, have been TERRIBLE on the road, coming into play with an ugly 18-35 road record. Valente Bellozo is set to make the 3rd start of his MLB career tonight. That’s just a BRUTAL matchup for him. The Braves are simply in a different class and have every reason to be motivated, while the Marlins are ready for the offseason.
Astros Money Line -152 FanDuel 5 Units
Newly acquired southpaw Yusei Kikuchi is set to make his 1st start as a member of the Astros tonight. He couldn’t have asked for a much better matchup. The Tampa Bay Rays were sellers at the Trade Deadline, and traded multiple star players, including Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes from the everyday lineup. That is A LOT of offensive firepower to lose. There’s simply NO WAY for them to replace that this season, of course. The Astros couldn’t be heading in a further direction. They’re in an absolute DOGFIGHT for the AL West title with the Mariners, and come into play tied for the division lead. These are the EXACT type of games that the Astros need to win if they want to capture another division title. Rays starter Shane Baz has been really good since making his 2024 debut after coming back from Tommy John surgery and an oblique injury. However, this is a TOUGH assignment tonight. The Astros are at home and well rested, and are the more DESPERATE team! If the lineup can get it going, Kikuchi and the bullpen should do enough to shutdown a WEAK Tampa Bay lineup!
Mets Money Line -135 DraftKings 5 Units
The Mets find themselves in the heart of the National League Wild Card race and now face off against one of the WORST teams in baseball. Paul Blackburn is set to make his 1st start as a New York Met. The Mets are also coming off a day off, while the Angels were busy finishing up their series with the Rockies. The Angels traded away multiple players as they look towards the future. They have struggled to score runs ALL YEAR. They have the 4th fewest runs scored in the American League. For the Mets, scoring runs hasn’t been the issue; it’s been preventing runs from being scored. The Mets KNOW they need these games if they want a shot at the playoffs, and after a day off, everyone is rested and ready to go. Southpaw Tyler Anderson has been a solid pitcher for the Angels, but the Mets have one of the hottest lineups in baseball right now. If Blackburn can keep a WEAK Angels lineup down, the Mets SHOULD be able to score enough to start their West Coast trip off right!
Padres -1 -136 DraftKings 5 Units
There is NO HOTTER TEAM in baseball right now than the San Diego Padres. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games and PULVERIZED the division rival Dodgers over two games. Now, they face one of the WORST road teams in baseball. Also working in the Padres favor is that they had the day off yesterday while the Rockies finished up their series with the Angels and then had to travel to San Diego. Southpaw Austin Gomber has been TERRIBLE on the road this year, posting a 5.73 ERA in road starts. He has a 5.72 ERA in his last 7 starts and has given up 11 earned runs in his last 3 starts! The Rockies have also been absolutely WOEFUL scoring runs on the road this year, averaging a paltry 3.68 runs per game. That’s bad news against Randy Vasquez, who’s been MUCH BETTER at Petco Park than he’s been on the road and an ELITE bullpen the Padres have put together. Simply put, these teams just DO NOT match up at all!
Dodgers Money Line -160 BetMGM 5 Units
The Dodgers are coming into this game MAD! They were embarrassed by their division rival Padres in their last series and now are just 4.5 games up on them for the division lead in the AL West. Fortunately for them, after a day off, they’re playing the woeful Athletics. Gavin Stone has really stepped up for the Dodgers when their starting rotation has needed it, posting a 2.81 ERA over his last 15 starts. He SHOULD be able to get back on track now after a rough few starts against a terrible Athletics lineup. This is a game the Dodgers NEED, and manager Dave Roberts will be ready to pull out ALL THE STOPS with his bullpen tonight to ensure his team gets back on track. If the Dodgers can score some runs against Joey Estes and his ERA just under 5, they should be able to get this series started off right.
Phillies/Mariners Over 8 Runs -110 BetMGM 5 Units
The Phillies may be in the midst of their worst stretch of the season, but it’s not because of their lineup. They have scored the 3rd most runs in the National League and have been absolutely shredding opposing pitchers ALL SEASON LONG! Facing Bryan Woo is no easy challenge, but neither is facing this dominant lineup. The real question is what the Mariners can do against righty Tyler Phillips, who has been DOMINANT since getting called up by the Phillies. All he did in his last start was throw a complete game SHUTOUT against the Guardians, and he went 6 scoreless innings in his start before that against the Pirates! Of course, there SHOULD be some regression from the rookie, but the Mariners have struggled to score all season long. Phillips wasn’t very good in the minors this year, posting a 4.89 ERA in 15 starts. He’s hittable, and the Mariners SHOULD be able to scratch some runs across tonight. If the Mariners can get some production from newly acquired bats Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner, they SHOULD be able to score enough and we just might see a SLUGFEST at T-Mobile Park tonight!
Jake Irvin Over 4.5 Ks -125 BetMGM 5 Units
John Irvin has gone over this number in each of his last 2 starts and 5 of his last 7 starts overall. In 3 of those starts, he had 7 or more strikeouts, showing he has ELITE swing and miss stuff when he’s on! He also goes deeper into games more often at home than he does on the road. He is averaging 6 innings per start at Nationals Park this season. He’s EASILY gone over this number in each of his last 2 home starts, tallying 15 strikeouts over 15 innings of work. The Brewers rank in the bottom 10 in MLB in strikeouts per game, and over their last 3 games are averaging more than 10 strikeouts per game! Add in that the Nationals have had a TERRIBLE bullpen recently and for much of the year, and manager Davey Martinez has EVERY reason to let Irvin go AS LONG AS HE CAN in this outing! If Irvin can control his pitches and attack the strike zone, he SHOULD be able to make MANY bats miss tonight!